Set Seasonality
Step 1: Set Seasonality
What & why: Seasonality is your demand rhythm. By period (or month/quarter), log Occupancy, its YoY change, ADR, and its YoY change. Use current-year data for the first six periods and last-year data for the remaining periods to avoid look-ahead bias.
| Period |
Occ/ES Occ |
Occ/ES Occ Chg |
ADR |
ADR Chg |
| 1 | 72% | 3% | $145 | 3% |
| 2 | 75% | 1% | $150 | 1% |
| 3 | 76% | 2% | $150 | 2% |
| 4 | 81% | 0% | $170 | 0% |
| 5 | 85% | 1% | $175 | 1% |
| 6 | 85% | 2% | $170 | 2% |
| 7 | 80% | 2% | $165 | 2% |
| 8 | 79% | 1% | $175 | 1% |
| 9 | 78% | 0% | $180 | 0% |
| 10 | 85% | 0% | $180 | 0% |
| 11 | 85% | -3% | $180 | -3% |
| 12 | 80% | -2% | $170 | -2% |
| 13 | 79% | -1% | $170 | -1% |
How to read: These columns show how full you were (Occupancy), how prices trended (ADR), and whether each is moving up or down vs. the comparison period.
| Season |
Start Date |
End Date |
Number of Days in Season |
% of Year |
| 1 | 01/01/17 | 03/31/17 | 90 | 25% |
| 2 | 04/01/17 | 06/30/17 | 91 | 25% |
| 3 | 07/01/17 | 09/15/17 | 77 | 21% |
| 4 | 09/16/17 | 12/31/17 | 107 | 29% |
Why this matters: You’ll use these season lengths to compute weighted averages later (longer seasons influence the average more).
(2) Establish “First Mark” Benchmark Rates for Each Season
“First Mark” is your data-driven starting price by season—before final strategy tweaks. Begin with a RevPAR growth view, then translate that into benchmark weekday rates.
Hotel WD RevPAR Growth Forecast (%): 1.4%
Meaning: WD can mean Weekday or Hotel-wide depending on your template. RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) growth of 1.4% is your baseline expectation vs. last year. Forecasts typically come from STR/market data, consulting outlooks, or your internal budget.
Non-Extended Stay Properties — Weekday Benchmark Rates
| Seasons |
Start Date |
End Date |
Current Year Weekday Benchmark Rate |
2017 First Mark Weekday Benchmark Rate |
| High | 01/01/17 | 03/31/17 | $209 | $212 |
| Shoulder | 04/01/17 | 06/30/17 | $259 | $263 |
| Low | 07/01/17 | 09/15/17 | $279 | $283 |
| Rain Season | 09/16/17 | 12/31/17 | $239 | $242 |
| Weighted Average |
$245 |
$248 |
Weighted Average, explained: It blends season rates proportional to each season’s days (longer seasons count more). Here, the overall weighted average weekday rate is $245 for the Current Year vs. $248 for 2017.
What is the “Weighted Average”?
·
Weighted Average
means an average that accounts for the length or importance of each season
(rather than a simple mean).
·
Here, the rates are
weighted by the number of days in each season. Longer seasons
influence the average more than shorter ones.
For example:
·
Season 1 has 90 days,
Season 3 has 77 days. Season 1’s rate will count more toward the yearly average
than Season 3’s because it covers more days.
·
The final weighted averages
here are $245 for the Current Year and $248
for 2017.
It's
still ambiguous
Weighted Average explained
·
A weighted average
means the average room rate across all seasons but adjusted for how
long each season lasts.
·
Instead of simply taking
the average of the four rates, it gives more weight to seasons that
cover more days.
·
Example: Season 3 (Jul
1–Sep 15) lasts about 77 days, while Season 1 (Jan 1–Mar 31) is about 90 days.
These longer seasons will have more impact on the weighted average compared to
shorter ones.
·
The result is one blended
figure that represents the overall average weekday rate for the year,
reflecting season lengths.
In the table:
·
Current Year
weighted average: $245
·
2017 weighted
average: $248
This tells you that, overall, when considering all seasons proportionally,
the current year’s average weekday rate is slightly lower than in 2017.
(3) Prepare a Segment Prognosis for Your Property
Goal: For each major segment, assess Demand, Competition, and Resource Allocation—and forecast next year’s Volume and Price using simple signs:
+ better, = same, - worse, NA not applicable.
Use ++ / -- for “much more/much less” in summary comments if needed.
Hotel: Mwezi Beach Resort | Market/Cluster: S-E ZNZ Beach Resort
| Segment |
Demand |
Competition |
Resource Allocation |
Prognosis — Volume |
Prognosis — Price |
| BT | + | = | + | + | + |
| Leisure | = | = | = | = | = |
| Long Stay | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Group | - | + | = | - | - |
| Contract | - | = | -- | - | = |
| Catering | = | + | = | - | = |
Tips: A “+” on Competition means more competitors (not inherently good). A “+” on Resource Allocation means you plan to invest more effort there.
(4) Evaluate Your Market & Hotel Influencers
How it works: Score each influencer relative to current year as +1 (better), 0 (same/unsure), or -1 (worse). Multiply by its weight, sum the impacts, and you’ll get a single Overall Impact Score to guide pricing moves.
Outlook scale: +10 to +5 = Strong +4 to 0 = Average 0 to -4 = Soft -5 to -10 = Bleak
| Market Influencers |
What to Consider |
| Item |
Rating |
Weight |
Impact |
Reference |
| Market Level Economic Indicators | 1 | 4% | 0 | GDP, employment, personal income growth. |
| Citywide Bookings | 1 | 6% | 1 | % change in next year’s citywides. |
| Group Booking Pace | -1 | 8% | -1 | Pace vs. last year. |
| Supply Outlook | 0 | 4% | 0 | New rooms/openings. |
| Top Source Markets/Key Factors | 1 | 5% | 1 | Events, deplanements, new businesses, etc. |
| Weekday Cluster Demand & Mix Trends | -1 | 4% | 0 | Corporate & above mix, price sensitivity. |
| Weekday Cluster Demand Outlook | -1 | 10% | -1 | Forward-looking demand. |
| Market RevPAR Trends | 0 | 6% | 0 | Cluster & comp set RevPAR view. |
| Market Occupancy Trends | 0 | 3% | 0 | Cluster & comp set occupancy view. |
| Other | 0 | 0% | 0 | Optional category. |
| Subtotal |
50% |
-1 |
|
| Hotel Influencers |
What to Consider |
| Item |
Rating |
Weight |
Impact |
Reference |
| BT Segment Prognosis: Price | 1 | 9% | 1 | From your Step 3 prognosis. |
| Group Booking Pace | -1 | 8% | -1 | Property pace vs. last year. |
| WD Corp & Above Mix / ES Occ | -1 | 7% | -1 | YTD trends & outlook. |
| Weekday Occupancy | 0 | 7% | 0 | YTD weekday occupancy trend. |
| Weekday Transient Rate Efficiency | -1 | 7% | -1 | Rate efficiency trend. |
| Source of RevPAR Growth Opportunity | 1 | 8% | 1 | Occ/mix vs. rate-driven growth. |
| Other | 0 | 0% | 0 | Optional category. |
| Subtotal |
46% |
-1 |
|
| Customer Influencers |
What to Consider |
| Item |
Rating |
Weight |
Impact |
Reference |
| Customer Value Perception | 0 | 4% | 0 | Brand/property value surveys. |
| Other | 0 | 0% | 0 | Optional category. |
| Subtotal |
4% |
0 |
|
| Total Overall Impact |
100% |
-1 |
SOFT OUTLOOK |
Interpreting your score: A total of -1 suggests a slightly soft outlook. Prioritize smart discounting, targeted value adds, and demand-building tactics while protecting price where you still have strength.
| Overall Impact Score |
What the Score Means & Strategy Implications |
Potential Pricing Action Steps |
| +10 to +5 — STRONG |
Performing well despite the macro backdrop. |
Consider increasing weekday benchmarks; monitor transient & group rate efficiency closely. |
| +4 to 0 — AVERAGE |
Stable conditions; creativity in pricing & mix wins. |
Adjust by season (not flat %). Some seasons may hold flat or drop; others can rise. |
| 0 to -4 — SOFT |
Below industry expectations. |
Be cautious; review season-by-season increases. Use value offers to shift patterns or secure more share. |
| -5 to -10 — BLEAK |
Underperforming—needs immediate repositioning. |
Consider a notable benchmark reduction and proactive campaigns to re-spark demand. |
(5) Adjust the “First Mark” Benchmark Rates Up/Down
Now act: Use your Overall Impact Score and Segment Prognosis to refine your weekday RevPAR forecast, then update benchmark rates by season. This step blends art and science—data + market feel.
| Season |
Start Date |
End Date |
Weekday Benchmark Rate |
% Change
(vs. Current Year → 2017) |
| Current Year |
2017 First Mark |
2017 |
| 1 | 01/01/17 | 03/31/17 | $209 | $212 | $214 | 2.4% |
| 2 | 04/01/17 | 06/30/17 | $259 | $263 | $269 | 3.9% |
| 3 | 07/01/17 | 09/15/17 | $279 | $283 | $284 | 1.8% |
| 4 | 09/16/17 | 12/31/17 | $239 | $242 | $249 | 4.2% |
| Weighted Average |
$245 |
$248 |
$253 |
3.1% |
Read it like this: Season 4 shows the largest YoY lift (+4.2%). The weighted average (accounts for the length of each season) rises from $245 to $253 (+3.1%).
(6) Establish a “First Mark” Rate for Each Account
What to do: Translate your seasonal benchmarks into account-level starting points. Consider each account’s historical production, stay pattern (e.g., Tue/Wed heavy), booking window, displacement risk, and total value (room + ancillary spend). Your “First Mark” per account should reflect both seasonality and account behavior.
- Start with the seasonal benchmark as the ceiling for like-for-like room types.
- Apply structure (e.g., % off benchmark) tied to volume commitments or pattern improvements.
- Guardrails: set minimum acceptable rates (floor) by season to protect ADR.
(7) Provide Account Data & Create an Account Ranking
Build a simple scorecard to rank accounts, weighting factors like % discount off benchmark, Tue/Wed concentration, Group & Catering value, and an overall value ratio. Lower total score = stronger account (if you score 1=best, 2=second, etc.).
- Suggested factors: % Discount, % Roomnights Off Benchmark, % Tue/Wed RN, Group Revenue, Catering Revenue, Value Ratio.
- Weightings: Prioritize what drives profit in your market (e.g., discount and Tue/Wed pattern may carry more weight for urban weekday hotels).
- Outcome: A transparent ranking to guide negotiations and rate protection.
(8) Adjust the “First Mark” Account Rates Up/Down
Finalize per account: Using the ranking and your Step 4 outlook, nudge each account’s First Mark up or down. Reward pattern shifts (e.g., adding shoulder nights), protect peak days, and tie concessions to measurable commitments.
- Upward adjustments for low-discount, high-value, shoulder-filling accounts.
- Downward adjustments only with clear ROI: longer LOS, improved pickup curve, or guaranteed volume.
- Review quarterly against on-the-books and pickup to keep agreements productive for both sides.
